Oscar Race 2008: Nomination Predictions

Tomorrow (actually, this) morning, Oscar will again begin its yearly ritual of gratifying itself whilst defecating all over anyone unfortunate enough to be in the vicinity, or something like that. Even when decent-to-good films like The Departed manage to take home the gold, the overwhelming effect is that of - ahem - dilution, a rich art form reduced to bare hinges and nails, where glitz and glamor trump even the slightest appreciation of actual aesthetic worth. This year already looks better than most, what with nominations for There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men - two of this year's legitimately great films - going all around, but one can already feel the dread of something as pedestrian and middlebrow as Juno or Atonement taking home the gold, echoing the years of Crash and A Beautiful Mind and threatening to wipe from memory the rare instance where they hit the proverbial nail on the head, such as Million Dollar Baby or The Return of the King (I'll give that one to them, even though Lost in Translation is better). The only question on my mind at this point, is: will the Academy attempt to challenge us this year, or will they again pander to non-taste? Either the expected nominees are so good that I'm able to remain optimistic, or I'm an outright masochist for submitting myself to this shit again. Here are the names I expect to be read off in the morning. As a rule of thumb, any erroneous choices are ones I'll be happy about.

Best Picture

Whether thanks to (a) the fact that the Writers strike has allowed so many people in H wood to purge their minds of the shit their television feeds them or (b) the impact of their perpetually unwavering critical support, both No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood are all but guaranteed presences here, not unlike two giants destined for a showdown. Only one more is a lock in my mind: the cute but inconsequential Juno, which began as a little-indie-that-could in the same line as Little Miss Sunshine, but quickly jumped in strength when Ebert named the film his favorite of the year. Preggo's the way to go, apparently. The remaining spots are anyone's guess, given the lack of additional thrust, missing in large part as a result of the non-existent Golden Globes jumpstart. Atonement may have won Best Drama at the announcement "ceremony", but who saw it (and, more importantly, where was the acceptance speech)? The final maybe is a draw between Michael Clayton and Into the Wild, each popular amongst critics and audiences but neither featuring assured Oscar guns. Into the Wild seems a surer choice, though, given it's much-coveted "Outstanding Performance by a Cast" nomination a la SAG.

Will be nominated: Atonement, Into the Wild, Juno, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood

Should be nominated: Aqua Teen Hunger Force Colon Movie Film For Theaters, Into Great Silence, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood, Zodiac

Best Director

This and the big one generally go hand in hand, but it bears mentioning that some of this year's Oscar favorites - such as Juno and Into the Wild - are hardly being recognized thanks to their supposed auteurs, the former because of it's dialogue-driven sense of "normality" (in reality anything but) and the latter because actors-turned-directors is so 2004. That leaves room for two more, actually kinda deserving names: Tim Burton, whose Sweeney Todd is both ravishing and underwhelming, and Julian Schnabel and his crazy experimental The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (a film whose conventionality I've found to be its greatest asset). One can only hope that Joe Wright will be forgotten for his tea party Atonement, but that would be wishful thinking at this point.

Will be nominated: Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood), Tim Burton (Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street), Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men), Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly), and Joe Wright (Atonement)

Should be nominated: Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood), Wes Anderson (The Darjeeling Limited), Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men), David Cronenberg (Eastern Promises), and Quentin Tarantino (Death Proof)

Best Actor

Let's keep these next four categories brief, as I've read enough celebrity coverage in the past year (Lindsay, Brittany, Paris, oh my!) for a lifetime, and if I start writing it myself I may as well just cut my wrists and get it over with. Day-Lewis is a deserving favorite, post-Pirates Depp continues to turn everything he touches into fool's gold, Mortensen showed his balls, Clooney has a God complex, and Hirsch has indie status on his side.

Will be nominated: George Clooney (Michael Clayton), Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood), Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street), Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild), and Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)

Should be nominated: Michael Cera (Superbad), Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood), Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises), Gordon Pissent (Away From Her), and Dana Snyder (Aqua Teen Hunger Force Colon Movie Film For Theaters)

Best Actress

Angelina Jolie's perfunctory, social service presence in Michael Winterbottom's perfunctory, social service A Mighty Heart (so disappointing after his exquisite Code 46) should have been forgotten about long ago, but this is a category that has been surprisingly devoid of latecomers this year. That status goes to Ellen Page for her attuned but disingenuous turn in Juno, a character that, in both concept and execution, is far from the likes of any teenager I've ever met, having been a smug, hip, self-conscious one myself (seriously, what planet is Ebert from?). Amy Adams, darling as ever, may squeak in on the box office success of the okay Enchanted, though it's doubtful that she'll be receiving any sort of "apology" award after being snubbed for her heartbreaking work in Junebug. That leaves this arena's two big contenders: Julie Christie for her breathtakingly invisible performance in Away From Her, and Marion Cotillard for her freakish gestures in the force-fed biopic that is La Vie En Rose (seriously, she reminds me of a transgendered Ace Ventura attempting masterpiece theater). Fans of these two will continue to duke it out until the awards ceremony, although this is one of those rare bitch slaps that I ultimately don't want to be involved with.

Will be nominated: Amy Adams (Enchanted), Julie Christie (Away From Her), Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose), Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart), and Ellen Page (Juno)

Should be nominated: Amy Adams (Enchanted), Julie Christie (Away From Her), Ashley Judd (Bug), Parker Posey (Broken English), and Christina Ricci (Black Snake Moan)

Best Supporting Actor

Casey Affleck will likely score The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford its one and only major Oscar nomination (with cinematography likely in store for the technicals). Ditto Phillip Seymour Hoffman (who I actually liked, despite my Slant pedigree), who is currently enjoying praise for Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, The Savages, and Charlie Wilson's War. Expect the latter because it's the only one that made a sizable dent at the B.O. That leaves favorites Hal Holbrook and Tom Wilkinson to share the same room with the unsurpassable Javier Bardem, whose nomination here would make up for so many deprived antagonist performances (Rutger Hauer, Hugo Weaving, Danny DeVito, and Robert Patrick all come to mind) if it weren't a direct extension of the film's mounting Best Picture tidal wave.

Will be nominated: Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford), Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men), Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War), Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild), and Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)

Should be nominated: Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men), Chris Kattan (Aqua Teen Hunger Force Colon Movie Film For Theaters), Christopher Mitz-Plasse (Superbad), Kurt Russell (Death Proof), and Steve Zahn (Rescue Dawn)

Best Supporting Actress

Last, and given this lineup, maybe least. Cate Blanchett's "interpretation" of Bob Dylan has gotten plenty of accolades for being freaky and gender-bendy without actually being good— what's the harm of one more? Tilda Swinton continues to remain popular because her lack of traditional hotness is, for most of the Academy, synonymous with talent (I, for the record, would tap that in a second), while Amy Ryan, whose performance remains unseen by me, has been slowly generating praise and has already nabbed some smaller awards. Ruby Dee was the best thing about Ridley Scott's epic yawner American Gangster, and Vanessa Redgrave gets to enjoy her character's atonement, at least if the film's superficial conflict resolution appeals to the Academy in the same way it did to critical bourgeois sensibilities.

Will be nominated: Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There), Ruby Dee (American Gangster), Vanessa Redgrave (Atonement), Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone), and Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)

Should be nominated: Vanessa Ferlito (Death Proof), Julie Kavner (The Simpsons Movie), Kelly Macdonald (No Country for Old Men), Sydney Poitier (Death Proof), and the female cast of Exterminating Angels